China recorded a sharp rebound in exports in November, pushing its trade surplus above the $1 trillion mark for the first time. The latest customs figures suggest that, despite a cooling economy and continued tensions with Washington, China’s role in global trade remains deeply entrenched.
Uneven Recovery Behind the Headline Growth
The 5.9% rise in exports marks a turnaround from October’s unexpected dip, when shipments slipped just over 1%. Imports in November rose by less than 2%, widening the monthly surplus and giving Beijing some breathing room as it tries to stabilise growth.
But the recovery is far from even. Sales to the United States fell nearly 29% from a year earlier—one of the steepest declines in recent years. The drop illustrates how the world’s two largest economies remain economically intertwined yet politically estranged.
To compensate, China is deepening trade ties across Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America, steadily reshaping the map of its export interests.
November’s exports totalled $330.3bn, while imports reached $218.6bn.
Tariff Relief May Not Have Filtered Through Yet
The recent upturn comes shortly after China and the U.S. agreed to a temporary trade truce during talks in South Korea at the end of October. Washington lowered some tariffs, and Beijing pledged to lift controls on rare earth exports, materials critical to global manufacturing.
Yet economists caution that the impact of these policy shifts has not fully worked through the system. ING’s Greater China chief economist, Lynn Song, noted that November’s data likely reflects pre-truce trading conditions and that the benefits of tariff cuts could appear in the coming months.
Despite the improved export numbers, factory activity remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month in November. That persistence of weak domestic output suggests the rebound in external demand is still too fragile to declare a turning point.
Record Surplus Highlights China’s Shifting Strategy
China’s cumulative trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year has reached nearly $1.08tn, surpassing last year’s full-year figure of $992bn. For Beijing, the surplus is both a sign of resilience and a reminder of the structural challenges the economy still faces.
The leadership has already identified advanced manufacturing as the backbone of the next stage of growth. This strategy—set out more clearly after a high-level meeting in October, prioritises sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries, where China is positioning itself as a global standard-setter.
At a Politburo meeting led by Xi Jinping on Monday, officials warned that global “trade struggles” would remain part of the external landscape. They emphasised the need to strengthen domestic demand to correct long-standing imbalances between production and consumption.
Beijing’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, expected later this month, is now the key indicator investors are watching for clues on policy moves in 2025.
Long-Term Outlook: More Competition, More Market Share
Analysts say Beijing’s focus on trade diversification is now a strategic necessity rather than a short-term response to U.S. pressure. The political freeze between the two powers, despite the temporary truce, means a stable trading environment is unlikely.
“China-U.S. relations are still stuck, which makes a smooth global trade environment difficult to imagine,” said Chi Lo of BNP Paribas Asset Management.
Even so, China’s manufacturing capacity, especially in high-growth sectors, is expected to continue expanding its global footprint. Morgan Stanley forecasts China’s share of global exports could rise from around 15% today to 16.5% by 2030, driven by its dominance in advanced technologies.
“Protectionism is rising, but China’s competitiveness remains strong enough to gain ground,” said Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya.